Strategic Resort Hotel Management

Strategic Resort Hotel Management Corporate Social Responsibility McWilliams et.al. (2006, pg. 4) defined CSR as situations where the firm goes beyond compliance and engages in actions that appear to further some social good, beyond the interests of the firm and that which is required by law and state that CSR should be used as an element of corporate strategy. According to Fombrun and Shanley (1990) socially responsible behaviour can lead to improve firms image and reputation and therefore increase visitors number. However, Friedman (1970) argued that the motivation is to serve the bottom line and as Trexler (2008) stated ethics and moral values have no place in the business world; considering that CSR and green programmes can be strategic responses to market realities, such as the rising of fossil fuel. Nevertheless, this does not change the fact that some activities that are motivated by the bottom line may have social benefits. Sani green programme has 3 main objectives with a well-defined plan and measurable targets; Sustainable hotel operation, protection and enhancement of local biodiversity, local community support and human capital development. The green programme so far has excellent outcomes in all 3 objectives (Resort,2016) and as aforementioned promoting and demonstrating CSR results can be very beneficial for the image and reputation of the resort. CSR can be advertised through numerous channels; such as internet, sustainability reports and media (Danuta de Grosbois,2011). Despite image, measuring the economic benefits of this objectives is crucial for resorts financial sustainability. Energy and water consumptions can be easily measured and so calculate the ROI. McWilliams and Siegel (2001) suggested a model based on RBV to address optimal investment in CSR and stated that managers can determine the appropriate level of investment in CSR by conducting cost benefit analysis in the same way that th ey analyse other investments. In terms of CSR towards the employees, benefits or loyal bonuses can mitigate the effect of staff turnover, lowering the expenses for training new staff and provide a standardised customer service. Sani is already affiliated with some NGOs (Appendix) but it would be advisable to increase their number. In summary, Sani resort must set achievable goals for CSR and display them to the public in order to boost its reputation and attract more green costumers. The financial measurement of the outcomes in all CSR programmes must be calculated and measured. Life cycle Understanding the life cycle of a product,here sani resort, is an important principle in order to make more profit and stay in business (Day, 1981). It can also be applied in forecasting and developing appropriate marketing strategies, depending on what stage the product is. In order to identify the stage of a product in the life cycle Day (1981) suggested feutures and patterns at each stage. Identifyingfeatures Stages Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Sales Low High High Low Investment cost Very high High (lower than intro stage) Low Low Competition Low or no competition High Very high Very High Profit Low High High Low Table.1 According to the balance shits ( Appendix ) profit had a step increase in 2015 reaching almost 26mil (up from 5mil in 2011) and the total revenue reached 131,69mil (up from 2011 89,42mil). The competition is still on high levels and the resort keep investing money on their facilities. From these facts, an assumption that the resort is on the growth stage can be made (Product Life Cycle Stages, n.d.). Box (1983) claimed that there are 2 courses of action to extend the lifetime of a product; the technological which implies usage of modern technology to improve the product and consumer-orientated option, which lies in motivating the consumer for further usage of the product. Adjusting Boxs theory in the resort, it is recommended further usage of modern technology to address problems such as the restaurant booking app (look at TOWS), and eco technology to improve and make more efficient the CSR programme of the resort. In terms of the consumer-orientation actions, sani resort continuously invests money to its facilities, both new and existing ones, creating new features and adding value. Since the revenues are increasing and the costs are dropping it would be wise if not reduce the price of rooms to keep it steady to be more competitive. Furthermore, keep the same marketing strategy for the niche markets, i.e. Russia and green market, but further advertising in the regional market an d in social media would be suggested. According to MarketLines (2016) report for tourism in Greece, tourism shown an increase of 1.8% in 2015 to reach a value of 33.4 billion (table.1) and by 2020 is expected to be 37.1billion (11.4% up from 2015)(table.2). Â   Â   table.1 table.2 Accomodation providers accounting 38.8% of the total revenue generated by tourism (table.3). Table.3 According to sani resorts balance shits (appendix), sani increased its total revenues from almost 90mil in 2011to 131mil (47%) and its profits more than 5 times (5mil in 2011 26mil in 2015). Furthermore, the average daily price increased by 3%. Statistics from tripadvisor.com All 4 hotels of Sani resort are rated with 5 stars(table.4). The majority of comments are good and based on the staff willingness to help while providing excellent service, the location of the hotel; beautiful beaches, sun and close to nature, and the amenities provided; spas, activities and relaxation (Appendix) Name of hotel Total reviews 1* 2* 3* 4* 5* #1 Sani asterias 513 0 7 9 34 463 #2 Porto Sani 771 1 4 10 77 571 #3 Sani Club 1306 2 10 26 105 885 #4 Sani Beach 2625 8 16 74 315 2212 Sum 5215 11 37 119 531 4517 Table.4 Bad reviews were based on the prices, which they claimed the hotel rooms restaurants were too expensive (table.5), lack of privacy, noise by the children and not heated pools. Some of the customers were also unhappy with the smoking policy and the speed of their transportation, which in Greece this is considered as normal behaviour. (Appendix) Name of hotel Rooms total Lowest price room Highest price room Sani Beach 361 104 454 Sani Club 212 110 392 Sani Dunes 136 164 342 Porto Sani 109 148 520 Sani Asterias 57 234 867 Sum 825 (According to the month prices may change)Table.5 SPA Sani Beach MySpa Porto Sani The Spa Suite Sani Club The Club Spa Sani Asterias Spa Retreat Sani Dunes D-Spa In the early 1980s some resorts added spa facilities in order to attract more visitors (Monteson P.A., Singer J., 2004). Initially spas used as support facilities and if they didnt cause revenue loss, their ability to attract costumers was enough to justify their existence (Anderson, 2001). However, nowadays spas are considered profit centers and they are autonomous departments of hotels (Madanoglu M., Brezina S., 2008). In sani resort every hotel is equipped with its own spa, which is open for all guest. All spas include hairsallons, gyms, saunas, pools and the basic spa treatments. What differentiate them from other spas is that their special treatments where design by Anne Semonin, a French firm specialised in creating bespoke skincare treatments using natural ingredients. Even though some of the basic treatments are the same in all of them Anne also designed signature treatments for each one of these 5 spas. Furthermore, what also differs in each spa is the area of their specialism. MySpa is specialized in facial treatments, while the Spa Suite offers a wide range of massages. The Club Spa, which is the biggest of all, is inspired by thermal Roman baths and its equipped with Turkish Hammam, Bio sauna, plunge pool and heated recliners. Spa retreat is designed for couples and the modern D-Spa, which will open in July, is characterised as a state-of-art spa, supplied with Technogym, Hammam and new-a ge spa facilities. Sanis spas can offer more than 40 different treatments in each spa and their prices differ depending the duration of them and the ingredients used, providing genuine and life-enriching experiences (Zimmer R, Clarke A., 2006).They start from as little as 50 and they can reach to 255, which are normal prices for such treatments. Spa reservation is an option and they offer many discounts such as couples discounts, early booking discounts and multi treatment packages in which a customer can select many treatments and get a discount for them. Furthermore, many packages related to spa trends are available (Spafinder, 2016), like the junior spa, where children over 12 years old can enjoy their spa treatments and their parents can also enjoy a relaxing treatment without worrying about them, or the enjoy with mum spa. As in CSR, here measuring the outcomes is also of the utmost importance in order to evaluate and design next years strategies. As Madanoglu (2008) stated, spa benefits to resorts revenue can be classified as direct, revenue generating, and indirect, as a marketing tool. Direct benefits can be measured using the spa revenue per occupied room (SPOR) or the per available room (SPAR) figures. Moreover, keeping records of the results of dividing SPAR with RevPAR for a long time can be very useful tool to examine whether spa revenue is on the same level with the room revenue (Madanoglu M., Brezina S., 2008). In conclusion, sani should promote more the Greek culture in spa using treatments such as the thalassotherapy, which is also a trend (Greece spa guide, n.d.), and offer more packages utilizing the surrounding environment (The adrenaline Spa, n.d.). Emphasise on the pre-arrival process and separate spa reservations can also be a useful tool to increase profits (Madanoglu M., Brezina S., 2008), and it should be taken under consideration. Finally focusing more on the experience customers get, can increase their satisfaction and so the revenues (Singer, 2000). Generic strategies STRATEGIES Current Position Suggestions Marketing strategy based on the 4Ps Prise Product Place Promotion Focus Strategy Niche market (Russia) green market Expanding Strategies Affiliated with IKOS resorts (Oaktree Capital) Goldman Sachs Asset Management fund and Hermes GPE Cost Leadership Strategy Increase profits by increasing prices and lowering costs Examine occupancy ratios to decide whether further increase in price should be wise Marketing strategies: Based on the VRIN and TOWS frameworks it is possible to create and implement a successful marketing strategy utilizing McCarthys (1964) marketing mix. 4Ps framework refers to 4 broad concepts of marketing decision; i.e. price, product, place and promotion. The suggestions in each field, except place in which sani invest a lot by renovations and building new attractions ( Sani Dunes) and we strongly suggest to keep the existing strategy, are the following: PRICE: Introduce new offer packages, such as early booking discounts to increase occupancy, offers for offseason stays and conventions to mitigate the effects of seasonality and special offers for special occasion events; i.e. valentines day and womans day Reduce or keep current prices (3% up from 2015) to increase costumers satisfaction, decrease bad reviews in sites (tripadvisor.com, booking.com) and be more competitive PRODUCT: Escaping from the routine and leisure are the 2 main reasons for a visitor to go to resort (Faizan Alia, Kashif Hussainb, Neethiahnanthan Ari Ragavanb , 2014). All hotels provide the same basic products the difference is how they provide it and with what quality (Bouncken, 2002). Product is the field that can differentiate sani resort from its competitors. According to Dunning (1981) there are 3 sectors to differ the product supplied; the on premises services which is the services received upon staying, the provision sector which is before the arrival stage and the deliver on the ground sector. Sani does an excellent job in their provision and delivering on the ground strategy and suggestion can be only made for the on premises services. For buildings and surrounding areas, since sani continuously invest in them (new hotel Sani Dunes) the suggestion is renovations where needed, so the resort will look more appealing Create more eco-activities to attract new customers Providing benefits, training and enhancing employees knowledge about customers preferences can offset the effects of staff turnover and lead to better and standardized service quality (Bouncken, 2002). PROMOTION: Promote sani resort more in the local community as a weekend escape option. Use social media to promote special events and offers ( facebook, twiter, Instagram) Promote sanis CSR and green programme even more Respond to criticisms in booking sites Focus Strategy: As Mr Andreadis, chief executive of the Sani, stated in FT they turn into the Russian market after the economic crisis in Greece and the worries that international tourism will decrease, as it did (Apendice) (Hope, 2015). The recommendation is to keep this strategy but also expand in the green (look at CSR) and purple (Appendice) market also. Expanding strategies: In 2016 Sani and Ikos resorts announced a merge, aiming in an investment plan worth 200mil(Akrivou, 2016);for buying new properties. Furthermore, funds from Oaktree Capital Management L.P., Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Hermes GPE, will also be involved it this investment plan (Kousounis, 2016). Cost Leadership Strategies: Since the costs are decreasing examine if a further increase in prices should be wise. Furthermore, investment in eco programmes can lead to an additional cost reduction and empower CSR programme. TOWS MATRIX A TOWS matrix is used by organisations in order to develop and implement their strategic plans, by matching its internal strengths and external opportunities (SO); to find its competitive advantages, as well as to identify and convert threats and weaknesses into opportunities and strengths (oxford college of marketing, 2016). SANI RESORT TOWS ANALYSIS External Opportunities External Threats Increase in tourism numbers in Greece Russian niche market Lack of competition in the area The green movement Experience over material trend technology and social medias takeover Economic crisis in Greece and unstable taxation model Instability in Turkey and refugee issue New competition in other municipalities in Greece Internal Strengths SO ST Excellent but transparent service Numerous amenities and activities Good reputation in social media and tourism websites Excellent environmental development and protection performance Location and geographic advantages Good relationship with local community and strong partnerships High tech convention facilities New hotel, Sani Dunes overflow budget Combine natural and cultural aspects with activities at the resort Use resorts good reputation to advertise sani in social media Due to eco-friendly image of resort, sani can promote it and attract more concern for environment visitors and introduce more eco-activities Considering the lack of competition in the area and the niche market, sani can promote its location advantages; sunny hot beaches, marina and walking trails, to attract more visitors Providing a peaceful and luxurious environment can mitigate the bad impression of Greece to visitors Promote the location of the resort to make it more competitive over other places in Greece Internal Weaknesses WO WT Seasonality High maintenance costs Staff turnover Restaurant bookings Utilize green programs to reduce maintenance cost and increase revenue Continuous development of programs and apps can contribute a lot in online booking and increasing revenues Aim in new markets for conventions to offset the effects of seasonality Provide training for staff and bonuses can mitigate staff turnover and hence improved service will increase relieving and decrease the worries of customers about political or social situations. SO Strategies: It is the desire of every firm to exploit the potential market opportunities by utilizing its resources. Sani should focus in 2 niche markets. The first one is the Russian market, worth mentioning that is a very rich market, which in the last 2 years Greece has become more popular as a destination for them. Sani has already turned to this market by opening a Branch office in Moscow and added Russian as an optional language in their site. Affiliations with big Russian tourism offices, creating packages especially for this market and hiring staff able to speak Russian are suggestions to be considered. The second is the green market, which consist of visitors who in order to choose their next destination they have the CSR programme of the firm as a criterion. Sani can use its surplus to create new eco-activities, develop and promote the Sani Green programme and invest in eco-tourism WÃŽÅ ¸ Strategies: When an organisation try to overcome its weaknesses, utilizing the external opportunities can become a very useful tool (Business Study Notes, 2016). Conventions from new markets can offset the effects of seasonality and by utilizing the sani green programme the maintenance costs can be reduced. ST Strategies: The unstable economy in Greece and the immigration problem have created a negative image of Greece to the visitors. Sani can overcome this issue by promoting its blessed location and its peaceful and relaxing environment by itself or take common action with the Greek National Tourism Organisation (visitGreece) to mitigate the effects of this image and promote a beautiful and attracting Greece. WT Strategies: This strategys goal is to remove sanis weaknesses which will overcome the external threats (Business Study Notes, 2016). By providing benefits and training to staff members the staff turnover can be mitigated and hence the service quality will be standardized and improved. As a result, customers can enjoy better service of pleased staff in a pleasant ambience away from Greek financial and political troubles. VRIN FRAMEWORK According to Barney (1991), in a business environment that the resources are heterogeneous in nature and not perfectly mobile, a resource can be characterised as sustainable competitive advantage if it fulfills the following 4 attributes: It must be valuable, in the sense that it can exploit opportunities It must be rare among firms current and potential competition It must be imperfectly imitable And it cannot be substituted The core competitive advantages for Sani resort, as mentioned and explained in the presentation, are the following. Sani Resort Valuable Rare Inimitable Non- Substitutable Size YES YES YES YES Marina YES YES YES YES SANI Festival YES YES YES YES Pase Dr. Blythe (2016,6th ed, pn.250), USP is the one feature of the product that most stands out as different from the competition, and is usually a feature that conveys unique benefits to the consumer. Even though the size and the marina are hard for competitive firms to imitate due to lack of resources in the area, SANI Festival is inimitable and therefore it can be characterised as a Unique Selling Point (USP) for the following reasons. For 25 years now SANI festival is connecting people from different cultures through music and art, attracting many international visitor and locals; providing high quality entertainment to its attenders and generates significant revenue for the resort. It is characterised as a USP for sani resort not only because of these 25 years of perfect organise, implementation and innovation, but also because there is no other art festival with the similar size, variety, glamour and reputation as SANI festival in Greece; which are the factors that makes it i nimitable, and not the cost of creating such an event. It is sure that there is room for more advertising in the social media, but since it is promoted and recognised as a refined art festival, there is a fine line between being an art festival and being a faceless attraction for many more visitors. Â  

The Problems Of Human Population Levels Environmental Sciences Essay

The Problems Of Human Population Levels Environmental Sciences Essay Suppose the world population stopped growing today (whew!) What environmental problems would that solve? Which ones would remain? What remaining problems would get worse? The biggest problem facing our environment today is the population of our planet. If the population of the world stopped today it would help improve living standards and perhaps facilitate more time to improve technology plus help balance the natural resources we have available. Taking steps to preserve or stop the abuse of our environment will largely depend on stabilizing the population. Serious concerns remain if we do not adopt some method of slowing the population. Birth control is one step in slowing down the worlds population. Education in developing countries is paramount. Many of these countries continue to have large families to ensure a sort of social security. However, the health of these families does not insure the longevity of the individuals. Many children die early as the result of poor nutrition and the lack of public health programs. However, even if we were able to contain the population from growing exponentially our environment still needs improvement in almost every sector. No one knows for sure just how many individuals mother earth can support. What we do know is that major problems such as public health, food supply, fresh water and the continued degrading and destruction of our woodlands and rain forests will remain. Plant biodiversity and climate control are also major issues that need our attention. Finally we need to look at what major problems would still remain after a cap in population came into effect. According to the article How Global Population Growth is Creating Serious Problems by Larry West posted at www.environmentabout.com the largest fear is that in coming decades the population of the planet will be faced with serious water-stress or water-scarce situations. These conditions will continue to intensify in meeting the needs of all individuals. The most serious of these overpopulation problems include starvation, pandemic diseases or warfare to secure a means of survival. Describe a way in which you use the scientific process in your life? The scientific process involves the following: identify a problem you would like to solve, formulate a hypothesis, test the hypothesis, collect and analyze the data, make conclusions. Three years ago we purchased an above ground swimming pool. My husband and I have owned two other such swimming pools. Although far from being experts we are both well versed in the care and cleaning of a swimming pool. We were talked into purchasing a paper cartridge type of filter. We had always used a sand filter and they had always performed well. Thinking that this new technology was better than sand we purchased the new filter. What should have been a fun project turned into a real nightmare. The problem was we could not keep the water clear. Although we knew what the problem was, the hypothesis was determining what was causing the water to go from clear to white. We tested the water; we had other people test the water. No one could come up with a reason why this was happening. Finally after using numerous chemicals and gallons and gallons of chlorine we stumbled upon a pool company near us. They also tested the water and low and behold we had phosphates or the common term, white algae. I had always thought that algae were green or black. However, as we learned there is also a variety known as white algae. The material was coming from our well water as well as in the air from farmers in the area spraying fertilizer. Our wonderful new filter that we had purchased could not handle the problem. Last year we finally gave the original filter the heave-ho and purchased the reliable sand filter and the results have been no more problems! A problem that I would like to solve is that of a cat spraying. It has to be the most disgusting thing I have ever encountered. One would have to wonder why cats do this. According to an article at www.iams.com Is your Cat Potty Naughty this is a rather common problem especially for certain cats. After observing cats in general, there are actually several reasons why this happens. First and foremost they do it to mark their territory. This is why it is important to spay or neuter animals especially males. The other issues concern the health of the animal or perhaps a behavioral issue. We have a cat that had both a health issue and a behavioral issue. We got the health issue taken care of with the help of our veterinarian. The behavioral issue was something that was going to take some time. At the suggestion of the veterinarian we secluded this animal in a cage by himself. In addition we tried all kind of cleaning chemicals to get rid of any remaining odor. Thank goodness none of it was on any of the carpeting! What we found however was certain cleaning solutions made the naught potty problem only worse. Any p roduct with ammonia only attracted the animal right back to the spot. So after trial and error we finally found that only cat cleaners that our vet recommended worked. 3. Describe two specific ways that microbes are important environmentally speaking, outside of the areas of health and food. Describe one way that microbes are beneficial in health. Just what is a microbe? Microbes play a very important role in our environment. According to www.library.thinkquest.org microbes are very small organisms belonging to various groups; Bacteria, Fungi, Protozoa and viruses. According to this article they play a significant role in our life on this planet. Without them there would be no earth as we know it. Phytoplankton is one microbe which resides in the ocean. Its role is to provide oxygen and help slow global warming by removing some of the carbon dioxide produced when we burn fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas or gasoline. In addition microbes provide a natural repellent to control pests on food crops and other vegetation. Perhaps if we relied more on this natural pest control we could reduce the use of harmful chemicals that end up on our food. Microbes are also present in our bodies. The friendly bacteria present in our bodies help to break down the food we eat and also prevent us from succumbing to serious illness by preventing harmful bacteria from entering our bodies. 4. Explain what could happen to the ecosystem where American Alligators live if the alligators went extinct. Name a plant species and animal species that would be seriously affected and describe how each might respond to these changes in their environment. The American Alligator is known as a Keystone Species. One might wonder just what a Keystone Species is. These species are those that play a critical role in the maintaining of the ecosystem where those species reside. Keystone Species such as the American Alligator have a very particular niche in the area where they reside. According to an article at www.atlss.org/gator the American Alligators role is one that has a major effect on the plant communities and associated aquatic animals. The alligators have survived where others have been come extinct. At www.exploringnature.org it was cited that alligators were put on the endangered species list back in 1967 and protected from hunting. After the alligator has hatched its young, the alligators nesting mounds provide a nesting area for other species such as herons, egrets and red-bellied turtles. In addition alligators keep in check the population of certain predatory fish such as the Gar. Perhaps the most important role they play is by keeping the wetlands open thereby sustaining the area by providing a home to many other plants and animals. It important to realize certain species even though thought of as annoying pests are quite important to our whole ecosystem. Take the same approach that you used in Question #4 and research and discuss the arrival of the Asian Carp into Lake Michigan. What are Asian Carp and where did these fish come from? According to an article at www.time.com these fish are related to what are commonly called bighead and silver carp. The Asian Carp are native to China and parts of Southeast Asia. These fish were originally used by American catfish farmers to eat the algae in their ponds. The Asian Carp have slowly found ways to make it into the Mississippi River and are now threatening Lake Michigan. According to the article these fish even though they are not particularly dangerous to people, grow quickly and adapt very well to their new environment. What makes them dangerous is that they feed on plankton which removes the bottom layers of the food chain of native fish species. Their potential presence is a very serious problem that has multiple effects. Their entry into Lake Michigan has the potential to ruin the fishing and tourism industries of Lake Michigan and the surrounding states. After all what fisherman would like to be smacked by on e of these huge fish that seem to love to go airborne when disrupted! From another ecological perspective, the Great Lakes are a key mid-continent migration rest stop for hundreds of thousands of waterfowl according to an article at www.ducks.org. Because these fish have such a huge appetite they can eat their weight in vegetation daily leaving the wetlands degraded and destroyed for these migrating waterfowl. This problem demonstrates what can happen when an invasive species find its way into a new area, allowed to reproduce and destroys the original ecosystem. Identify a major local, national or global environmental problem and research and describe the role of population growth on this problem. Lake Manitou is a 735 acre manmade lake located in Rochester, Indiana. This lake is home to many residents of Fulton County, Indiana and also a hot spot in the summer to many individuals living outside the Fulton County area. In 2006 it was discovered that Lake Manitou was being threatened by an invasive fast-growing aquatic plant. The name of this pant is Hydrilla verticillata. Hydrilla is a noxious plant according to www.plants.usda.gov. In addition, according to an article found at www.rochsent.com Hydrilla invades lake this plant is commonly found in southern states. What makes this plant so serious is that it invades the water ecosystem and has the potential to choke out other aquatic plants. There are several ways that this plant may have made its way into this lake. Since this lake is a popular boating lake it is possible that a boat was contaminated somewhere else and when launched into Manitou it released the plant. The second reason according the Indiana DNR is that individ uals who live or rent cottages at the lake unintentionally tossed water garden or pond plants into the lake. My husband and I live on a private lake in Fulton County. This lake has been used in the past by many residents for fishing. However, we are very picky and do not allow any boats to come on our property especially after this incident at Lake Manitou. It is very important to my husband and me that we maintain the quality of the lake and protect the ecosystem right in our own backyard. Explain in a detailed way why most of the animals in tropical rainforest live in trees. Tropical rainforests are defined as dense forests with high amounts of rainfall and are located in tropical regions of the world. These forests are home to all kinds of animals and insect life. In fact there are probably many animals and or insects that have yet to be discovered in the rainforests. According to Rainforest an article located at www.rainforestanimals.net there are several layers to the rainforest. These layers are known as Emergent Layer, Canopy, Understory and the Rainforest floor. The top layer known as the Emergent Layer is home to a variety of insects, some species of bats and some species of birds. The next layer known as the Canopy is composed of trees that grow to heights of 100 150 feet. It is in these two areas where most of the animals make their home and find their food. The lower levels of the rain forest do not receive much sunlight however; these levels still provide an environment conducive to a variety of life that inhabits the rainforest floor. It does make one wonder how so many species can live in harmony and find the food and water to survive. The main reason is because they have adapted to living on specific plants or animals which other species are unable to eat. I found a very interesting article at www.ran.org. that explains how these species often help each other by supplying fruits and vegetation by droppings etc. However, these species have become so dependent on each other that if one does not survive the other will often become extinct as well. Using the bird example as a model, identify another species that your lifestyle (or that of our community) could directly or indirectly contribute to its premature extinction. What are three things that could be done to mitigate that? Extinction is forever. There is no turning back the clock to save the species which in the case of the passenger pigeon was directly the result of human intervention. It is our human activities that have the most profound effect on species animals and plants alike. By degrading and destroying our environment we are the prime reason why species are becoming extinct. One species that could be in danger is migrating waterfowl. By degrading and destroying wetlands and marshes we are limiting the areas where these animals take refuge. On a local perspective we all become annoyed at the growing population of the Canada goose. They seem to be everywhere. But have you ever thought that perhaps we have taken away the areas that once belonged to them? In our local community the golfers are upset because there is a large population of geese. Well what do you expect down the road is a large 735 acre lake and wetlands next to the gold course. It really makes me angry when we take areas away from these animals and then complain about their presence. Where are they supposed to live? Another area that is in danger is located in Western Canada and Central Alaska that is home to one of the largest forested regions in the world according to the article Western Boreal Forest Canada Region #5 located at www.ducks.org . This massive forest area is home to many species of waterfowl including; ducks, loons and sandhill cranes. It is where they migrate, molt and breed. These pristine areas of lakes and forests have in the past been immune to outside degradation and destruction due to the remote area where it is located. However, it is evident that humans are moving into this area in search of ways to feed our growing oil consumption. It will have a profound effect on the land, the species and the climate of this region. There are many things that can be done to protect these wonderful areas. One of the most important I feel is education. Ducks Unlimited strives to do just that by educating individuals and maintaining existing wetlands. In addition we need to use proper forest management to protect these areas. Lastly we need to find solutions to decrease our huge appetite for petroleum. In doing so we alleviate several problems, cut down on destroying pristine areas which are home to many species, lower water and air population and slow down the process of greenhouse gases. All of these are important to sustain our environment.

Missing Children Essay -- Law, Adam Walsh

The case of six-year old Adam Walsh is perhaps one that will never leave the minds of anyone initially horrified by its details. In 1981 young Adam was kidnapped from a local mall and regardless of tireless efforts by his parents John and Reve Walsh, volunteers, and law enforcement; Adam fell victim to murder. Two weeks after the boy went missing, his decapitated head was located, but his body was never found. This prompted his father John Walsh to start a campaign and legislature policy submission toward more stringent accountability for child crime offenders. â€Å"The murder transformed John Walsh's life, turning him from a middle-class hotel marketing executive into one of country's best known advocates for missing children† (Thomas, 2008). In this paper, the initial legislative policy signed into law by President George W. Bush and the current policy addition initiative sought by Mr. Walsh is examined. The Scope of the Initiative With the signing of the initial policy by President Bush in 2006, the Adam Walsh Child Protection and Safety Act became law. Aforementioned, the policy directive was to enact tougher laws on child predators however; the policy contains two additional provisions that would violate states rights and state policy’s currently in place for adoptive, foster, and relative caregivers. The two provisions contained in the Adam Walsh law are to follow. 1. Modified existing requirements for conducting criminal background checks 2. Created a new requirement to conduct child abuse registry checks of prospective foster and adoptive parents. (Miller, 2007). The policy provisions left the states the discretion of choosing placement however, if those in the household filing for adoption or fostering o... ...l, such as in Morse’s report cited, now have the opportunity to voice concerns and suggestions. Conclusion The Adam Walsh Act while regulatory and legislative, still requires changes before all parties affected stand united in approval. Whereas Congress could use its spending power to encourage state compliance, not all states would view this as constitutional. There is much to do concerning this act, but the outcome is unpredictable. Current filings to repeal or revise the entire Adam Walsh Act exist such as by Citizens for Change in America, represented by Michael R. Handler. The repeal document cites the AWA as being draconian and going against Due Process and the Bail Reform Act of 1984. Only time will prove the Adam Walsh Act is successful as currently written, but undoubtedly there are changes to come with such opposition and reasoning.

Art Exhibition Review: Valerie Andrianoff Essay -- Valerie Andrianoff

The Gallery presented a set of bronze sculptures made by a French artist called Valerie Andrianoff. Val’s works of art can be perceived as a search for balance and stability as the heading of this exhibition has already suggested â€Å"The Balance of Life† (Byrs-Lasquier, n.d.). In the following, a few of her works will be selected to illustrate what kind of ideas she is trying to express and how I feel about these sculptures. Most of the human figures created by Val are small. We can rarely see their facial expression. Most of the people may find them not beautiful, but through the figures and their body movements, artist’s idea of presenting balance really achieves. Like the two Small Round Table (Fig. 1 & 2), the figure is slim and slender who tries to balance the body in a whirling or rotating table, echoing the name of this exhibition The Balance of Life. It seems that these two works of art try to show people in this fast changing and spinning world have to take the first step to seek the equilibrium when finding their own role. The movements of the two figures are also like touching a water surface and make it swirls, creating a special visual effect that is pleasant to look at. The images of circle appear quite frequently in Val’s bronze sculptures. For instance, Loneliness (Fig. 3) shows a human being surrounds by a number of circles that give an impression to resemble our round-shaped world. This work of art looks as if the person is in his own mental world with no other people present. As the name of this work suggests, this person is probably in a state of loneliness and meditates in this revolving world. Loneliness too creates a sense of balance when putting a small and slim figure on a strip of circle. Running In A... ...he human beings. Sometimes leaving the reality and trying to meditate or think of our roles in the real world may be another kind of psychotherapy to help us to achieve a balance in our life. Works Cited Byrs-Lasquier, P. (n.d.). Retrieved December 3, 2009, from http://www.sculptureval.com/index.shtml Fichner-Rathus, L. (1998). Understanding Art (5th ed.). Upper Saddle River, N. J.: Prentice Hall. Winckelmann, J. (1764). The History of Ancient Art. In L. Eitner (Ed.), Neoclassicism and Romanticism 1750-1850 (pp. 16-19). New York: Harper & Row. Fine Arts Interactive Visual Archive [Image] (n.d.). Retrieved December 3, 2009, from http://finearts.hku.hk/faiva/slides/imagepop/3871 Wellington Gallery [Image] (n.d.). Retrieved December 3, 2009, from http://www.wellingtongallery.com.hk/exhibitions/ http://www.wellingtongallery.com.hk/artists/of/the/month/

Risk and Return Analyis and Portfolio Management of Indian Automobile Companies

PSG INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT FINANCIAL SYSTEMS A PROJECT REPORT On RISK AND RETURN ANALYSIS & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT Of INDIAN AUTOMOBILE COMPANIES Submitted by, G. Abirami(9UTB02) M. Kamalam(9UTB13) N. Nirupa(9UTB18) P. Srilakshmi(9UTB32) INDEX CONTENTS PAGE NO. Acknowledgement Statement of Problem Introduction: Industry overview Company profiles Objectives Scope & Limitations Literature Review Research Methodology Analysis & Interpretation Findings Suggestions Conclusion Bibliography (i) (ii) 1 1 3 13 13 14 18 20 33 36 37 38 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First of all we thank the Almighty for having bestowed upon us the sufficient potential with which we are able to complete whatever work we undertake successfully. We feel a heart full of gratitude to our Director Mr. R. Nandagopal for encouraging us regarding all our curricular activities which take place at PSGIM. We also extend our thanks to our co-ordinator Mrs. V. Srividhya for being a constant support throughout and keeping us guided along the right path always. We also wish to thank our teacher for Financial and Management Accounting Mr. P. Varadharajan for having given us this opportunity in taking up this project and for his constant support and guidance throughout the course of the project. We also like to thank our parents who have carved a bright future for us by placing us in such a spectacular and prestigious institution where we could see ourselves as what and as whom we dream to become. May be the last but not the least people to thank are our friends. Thanks is a word not to be shared among friendship but it should be felt for the presence of their soulful support throughout our life. (i) STATEMENT OF PROBLEM Automotive Industry has significantly increased its contribution to overall industrial growth in the country. By 2030 India will be the third largest car market in the world after China and Japan. This coupled by the purchasing power of the ultra rich makes India a top destination for manufacturers of luxury cars Investment by foreign companies in automobiles implies a bright future for the auto industry India. This will lead to the creation of jobs, and a wider range for consumers to choose from. It will also give Indian companies a chance to compete globally for clients. This will greatly benefit the auto component and ancillary industry that will get access to the latest technology and manufacturing practices. According to Commerce Minister Kamal Nath, India is an attractive destination for global auto giants like BMW, General Motors, Ford and Hyundai who were setting base in India, despite the absence of specific trade agreements. Current Scenario On the cost front of Indian automobile industry, OEMs are eyeing India in a big way, investing to source products and components at significant discounts to home market. Overview By 2010, India is expected to witness over Rs 30,000 crore of investment. Maruti Udyog has set up the second car with an investment of Rs 6,500 crore. Hyundai will bring in more than Rs 3,800 crore to India. Tata Motors will be investing Rs 2,000 crore in its small car project. General Motors will be investing Rs 100 crore and Ford about Rs 350 crore. Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors have each announced over Rs 1,000 crore of investment. (ii) ________________________________________ ________________________________________ INTRODUCTION In India there are 100 people per vehicle, while this figure is 82 in China. It is expected that Indian automobile industry will achieve mass motorization status by 2014. Industry Overview: Since the first car rolled out on the streets of Mumbai (then Bombay) in 1898, the Automobile Industry of India has come a long way. During its early stages the auto industry was overlooked by the then Government and the policies were also not favourable. The liberalization policy and various tax reliefs by the Govt. of India in recent years have made remarkable impacts on Indian Automobile Industry. Indian auto industry, which is currently growing at the pace of around 18 % per annum, has become a hot destination for global auto players like Volvo, General Motors and Ford. A well developed transportation system plays a key role in the development of an economy, and India is no exception to it. With the growth of transportation system the Automotive Industry of India is also growing at rapid speed, occupying an important place on the ‘canvas' of Indian economy. Today Indian automotive industry is fully capable of producing various kinds of vehicles and can be divided into 03 broad categories : Cars, two-wheelers and heavy vehicles. Snippets: The first automobile in India rolled in 1897 in Bombay. India is being recognized as potential emerging auto market. Foreign players are adding to their investments in Indian auto industry. Within two-wheelers, motorcycles contribute 80% of the segment size. Unlike the USA, the Indian passenger vehicle market is dominated by cars (79%). Tata Motors dominates over 60% of the Indian commercial vehicle market. 2/3rd of auto component production is consumed directly by OEMs. India is the largest three-wheeler market in the world. India is the largest two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. India is the second largest tractor manufacturer in the world. India is the fifth largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in the world. The number one global motorcycle manufacturer is in India. India is the fourth largest car market in Asia – recently crossed the 1 million mark. 1 Segment Knowhow: Among the two-wheeler segment, motorcycles have major share in the market. Hero Honda contributes 50% motorcycles to the market. In it Honda holds 46% share in scooter and TVS makes 82% of the mopeds in the country. 40% of the three-wheelers are used as goods transport purpose. Piaggio holds 40% of the market share. Among the passenger transport, Bajaj is the leader by making 68% of the three-wheelers. Cars dominate the passenger vehicle market by 79%. Maruti Suzuki has 52% share in passenger cars and is a complete monopoly in multipurpose vehicles. In utility vehicles Mahindra holds 42% share. In commercial vehicle, Tata Motors dominates the market with more than 60% share. Tata Motors is also the world's fifth largest medium & heavy commercial vehicle manufacturer. 2 COMPANY PROFILES ASHOK LEYLAND In 1948, The Company was incorporated on 7th September, at Chennai. The Company Manufacture Comet chassis and Leyland `Tiger' and `Titan' Chassis and Leyland diesel engines. In 1955, the name of the Company was changed from Ashok Motors Ltd. , to AshokLeyland Ltd. in July. Ashok Leyland Motors Ltd. , are the associates Of the company In 2006, Ashok Leyland gets ISO/TS 16949 corporate certification In 2010, Ashok Leyland, the flagship company of Hinduja group, unveiled the Country’s first electric plug-in CNG hybrid bus, HYBUS, at the Delhi Auto show. Company Background Name Auto LCVs/HCVs House Name Hindujas Group Year of Incorporation 1948 Board of Directors: R J Shahaney Chairman / Chair Person D J Balaji Rao Director Ramachandran R Nai Director Shardul S Shroff Director V Sumantran Director Vinod K Dasari Whole Time Director J N Amrolia Executive Director S Balasubramanian Executive Director R R G Menon Executive Director M Nataraj Executive Director Rajive Saharia Executive Director 3 EICHER MOTORS In 1982, The company was incorporated on 14th October, and the Certificate of commencement of business was obtained on 28th March, 1983. It was promoted in the joint sector by Eicher Goodearth Ltd. Mitsubishi Corporation, Japan, Mitsubishi Motors Corporation Japan and Madhya Pradesh Audyogik Vikas Nigam Ltd. In 2005, Eicher Motors entered into definitive agreements with TMTL on May 27, In 2006, Eicher Motors Ltd (EML) on Feb 20, announced Mr. Siddhartha Lal as its new Managing Director designate. Eicher joins hands with Wipro to source hydraulic kits In 2007, Eicher Motors Ltd has informed that the Board of Directors of the Company in its meeting held on October 22, 2007 approved appointment of Mr. Rajesh Arora as Company Secretary as well as Compliance Officer of the Company. Company Background: Industry Name Auto LCVs/HCVs House Name Eicher Group Year of Incorporation 1982 Board of Directors: S Sandilya Chairman / Chair Person Priya Brat Director Prateek Jalan Director Siddhartha Lal Managing Director & CEO 4 ESCORTS In 1947, After partition the registered office of the Company was shifted from Lahore to New Delhi. The name of the Company was changed from Escorts (Agents) Pvt. Ltd. , to Escorts Ltd. upon its conversion into a Public company. In 2005, Escorts win . 5-m tractor order from Ghana Escorts Ltd has acquired its Polish joint venture partner, Farmtrac Tractors Europe Escorts' US subsidiary teams up with SAME Deutz-Fahr Italia In 2006, Escort India is set to manufacture tractors in Bangladesh through a Joint venture with the Nitol-Niloy group. Company Background Name Auto Tractors House Name Nand Year of Incorporation 1944 Board of Directors: Rajan NandaChairman and Managing director M G K MenonDirector P S PritamDirector Nikhil NandaJoint Managing Director 5 HERO HONDA In 1984, The Company was incorporated on 19th January, at New Delhi. The Company Manufacture motor cycles up to 100 cc capacity. The Company Was promoted by Hero Cycles (P) Ltd. (HCPL). In 2005, New product launches widen HHML's product portfolio Two-wheeler major Hero Honda on October 5 announced launch of its First scooter ‘Pleasure' Hero Honda rolls out 150-cc motorcycle Achiever. In 2006, Hero Honda announced the launch of two new variants the new ‘Glamour' and ‘Passion Plus' limited edition. In 2007, Hero Honda Motors Ltd. has appointed Mr. Yutaka Kudo as Director and Whole-time Director of the Company in the category of Executive Director w. e. f. April 1, 2007. Company Background: Industry Name Auto 2 & 3 Wheelers House Name Hero Year of Incorporation 1984 Board of Directors: Toshiaki Nakagawa Joint Managing Director Masahiro Takedagawa Non Executive Director Pawan Munjal Managing Director and CEO Takashi Nagai Non Executive Director Pradeep Dinodia Non. Exe. Independent Director 6 HMT In 1953, The Company was incorporated in Bangalore. The Company was converted into a Public Limited Company on May 13, 1977. The main objects of the Company is Manufacturing of the Machine tools, metal forming presses and press brakes, pressure die, casting machines and automatic plastic injection molding machines, automatic plastic injection molding machines. In 1998, HMT International Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of HMT, has bagged a Rs. 3-crore order for setting up an Entrepreneur Technical Development Centre (ETDC) at Dakar in Senegal. In 2010, HMT Ltd has informed that Shri Harbhajan Singh has been appointed as Part-time Official Director on the Board of the Company with Effect from January 11, 2010 Company Background: Industry Name Auto Tractors House Name Public Sector Year of Incorporation 1953. Board of Directors: Rajiv BansalDirector S G SridharDirector (Operations) S BehuriaDirector Sourabh ChandraDirector K KipgenDirector Prakash SharanExecutive Director Harbhajan SinghPart Time Official Director 7 MARUTI SUZUKI In 2000, The Company was awarded the Highest Exporter Award in New Delhi. ICRA has assigned `LAAA' rating to the Rs. 200-crore Long-term non-convertible debenture program and `A1+' rating to the Rs. 100-crore commercial paper program of the company. In 2002, The government on May 14, 2002 set into motion big-ticket disinvestment in 2002-03 by announcing a two-stage process to exit from Maruti Udyog Ltd, a joint venture with Suzuki Motor Company. In 2007, Maruti Udyog Limited has informed that Mr. Tsuneo Kobayashi, a Non-executive director, has been appointed as Whole-time Director designated as Senior Joint Managing Director. The Board of Directors in their meeting held on 22nd January, 2007 has approved the above. UTI Bank and Maruti have joined hands for giving car finance. Company Background: Industry Name Auto Cars & Jeeps House Name MNC Associate Year of Incorporation 1981 Board of Directors: R C BhargavaChairman / Chair Person Amal GanguliDirector Keiichi AsaiDirector Osamu SuzukiDirector Davinder Singh BrarDirector 8 TATA MOTORS Tata Motors Limited is India's largest automobile company, with consolidated revenues of Rs. 70,938. 85 crores (USD 14 billion) in 2008-09. It is the leader in commercial vehicles in each segment, and among the top three in passenger vehicles with winning products in the compact, midsize car and utility vehicle segments. The company is the world's fourth largest truck manufacturer, and the world's second largest bus manufacturer. The company's 24,000 employees are guided by the vision to be â€Å"best in the manner in which we operate, best in the products we deliver, and best in our value system and ethics. Established in 1945, Tata Motors' presence indeed cuts across the length and breadth of India. Over 4 million Tata vehicles ply on Indian roads, since the first rolled out in 1954. Company Background Industry Name Auto LCVs/HCVs House Name Tata Group Collaborative Year Of Incorporation 1945 Board of Directors: Ratan N TataChairman / Chair Person N A SoonawalaDirector R Gopalakri shnanDirector S M PaliaDirector S BhargavaDirector V K JairathDirector 9 TVS MOTORS TVS has been at the forefront in bringing a revolution in the way personal commutation was happening, way back in the 1980s. Beginning with launching a simple, easy-to-use moped for the middle class in India in the 1980s to launching 7 new bikes in a single day (first time in the history of the automotive industry in the world), TVS has often taken the unbeaten path to innovation. The Group's principal activity is to manufacture and sell motor cycles and components. The Group operates in two segments: Automotive Vehicles and Automotive Components. Automotive Vehicles include motorcycles, mopeds, ungeared scooters and three wheelers. The products of the Group include TVS Apache, TVS Scooty, TVS Fiero, TVS Super XL, TVS Victor, TVS Centra, TVS Star etc. It's plants are located at Hosur, Tamil Nadu , Mysore, Karnataka and Solan, Himachal Pradesh. Company Background Industry Name Auto 2 & 3 Wheelers House Name TVS Group Year of Incorporation 1982 Board of Directors: Venu Srinivasan Chairman and Managing director T Kannan Director K S Bajpai Director Prince Asirvatham Director 10 MAHINDRA AND MAHINDRA: Mahindra embarked on its journey in 1945 by assembling the Willys Jeep in India and is now a US $6. 3 billion Indian multinational. It employs over 1,00,000 people across the globe and enjoys a leadership position in utility vehicles, tractors and information technology, with a significant and growing presence in financial services, tourism, infrastructure development, trade and logistics. The Mahindra Group today is an embodiment of global excellence and enjoys a strong corporate brand image. Mahindra is the only Indian company among the top tractor brands in the world and has made an entry in the two-wheeler segment, which will see the company emerge as a full-range player with a presence in almost every segment of the automobile industry. The Mahindra Group expanded its IT portfolio when Tech Mahindra acquired the leading global business and information technology services company, Satyam Computer Services. The company is now known as Mahindra Satyam. Mahindra's Farm Equipment Sector is the proud recipient of the Japan Quality Medal, the only tractor company worldwide to be bestowed this honour. It also holds the distinction of being the only tractor company worldwide to win the Deming Prize. The US based Reputation Institute recently ranked Mahindra among the top 10 Indian companies in its Global 200: The World's Best Corporate Reputations list. Mahindra is also one of the few Indian companies to receive an A+ GRI checked rating for its first Sustainability Report for the year 2007-08. Company Background: Industry Name Auto -Cars & Jeeps House Name M & M Year of Incorporation 1945 Board of Directors: Keshub Mahindra Chairman / Chair Person Deepak S Parekh Director M M Murugappan Director A S Ganguly Director Anupam Puri Director 11 BAJAJ AUTO Bajaj Auto Ltd. is the largest exporter of two and three wheelers. With Kawasaki Heavy Industries of Japan, Bajaj manufactures state-of-the-art range of two-wheelers. The brand, Pulsar is continually dominating the Indian motorcycle market in the premium segment. Its Discover DTSi is also a successful bike on Indian roads. 2010 – Bajaj Auto launched a 135 cc Pulsar, priced at Rs 51,000, pushing the Pulsar brand into the mass segment. Company Background: Founder Jamnalal Bajaj Year of Establishment 1926 Industry Automotive 2 & 3 Wheelers Business Group The Bajaj Dominant presence in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Columbia, Guatemala, Peru, Egypt, Iran and Indonesia. Joint Venture Kawasaki Heavy Industries of Japan Board of Directors: Rahul Bajaj Chairman / Chair Person Rajiv Bajaj Managing Director D S Mehta Director Shekhar Bajaj Director J N Godrej Director Suman Kirloskar Director 12 ________________________________________ ________________________________________ OBJECTIVES Primary Objective: Construction of optimal portfolio using Sharpe Index Model To analyze the risk and return of Indian automobile companies. Secondary Objectives: To understand the Sharpe's Portfolio Selection Model over the Standardized Index Portfolio called Market portfolio in respect of stock market perations in India. It also involves the estimation of Beta for each potential asset; these estimations are obtained based on past data and using statistical methods in order to obtain future Beta. To understand the current scenario of Indian automobile industry. SCOPE & LIMITATIONS Scope: To get overview outline about the selected Indian automobile company, their performance comparison, market share, potential and their volatility. Serves as a source of information for investors in identifying the risk averse and risk seeking shares (more return and less risk)of selected automobile industry. To get insight about the application of Sharpe index model in risk and return analysis of portfolio management. Limitations 1. Only selected industries in Indian automobile sector. 2. The data obtained and collected are only approximate and not more accurate. 3. Market fluctuations in share price of the selected industries. 4. Application of Sharpie index model alone. 13 ________________________________________ ________________________________________ LITERATURE REVIEW â€Å"The Accounting Review†: Elgers, Pieter T. Murray, Dennis ( Apr 1982) published that a measure of investment risk-the systematic risk of the Sharpe-Linter capital asset pricing model (CAPM)-is now widely employed. The relationship between beta estimates and various accounting risk measures (ARMs) have been extensively studied by accounting researchers, but results have led to different inferences about the usefulness of ARMs. The impact of the choice of market index on inferences concerning the usefulness o f ARMs in explaining and predicting beta is investigated. The association of ARMs and beta tests are always joint tests. Beta reflects the expected co variation between the returns of a given security and those of the market portfolio of all risky capital assets. The market portfolio, however, is not observable. Empirical evidence showed: 1. that the stability of beta estimates over time are quite sensitive to the market index employed, 2. that the ability of ARMs to explain differences among betas for a cross-section of firms is highest when the betas are estimated using the CRSP equal-weighted index, and 3. that the ability of ARMs to improve upon market-based forecasts of beta depends upon the choice of market index and the error metric employed. The Journal of Finance†: Kwan, Clarence C. Y (Dec 1984) published that a simple common algorithm that is applicable to 7 models is suggested for optimal portfolio selection disallowing short sales of risky securities. The 7 models considered are: 1. Sharpe's (1963) single index model, 2. Cohen and Pogue's (1967) multi-index models in diagonal and cova riance forms, 3. Two multi-index models with orthogonal indexes, and 4. Two constant correlation models. The proposed algorithm successfully bypasses the requirement of explicitly ranking securities that is essential in previous research on the topic. Because of this feature, the algorithm is especially useful for the 2 multi-index models with orthogonal indexes where there are problems in establishing a ranking criterion. An illustrative example is provided showing the results of all the iterative steps. It is demonstrated in a simulation study performed on the 5 models with multiple groups that the procedure involved in the search for optimality requires only small numbers of simple iterative steps. Thus, the method can enhance the usefulness of these index models and constant correlation models in portfolio analysis. The Journal of Portfolio Management†: Gressis, N. , Vlahos, G. , Phillipatos, G. C. (Spring 1984) published that the recent establishment of stock index futures markets has opened up a variety of new investment opportunities that should improve the performance of both secondary markets and individual investor portfolios. Trading in stock index futures has been proposed as an effective hedge against investment risk. A technique based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) framework is here developed to identify the profit opportunities of stock index futures trading. With this technique, the systematic risk of a stock index futures contract can be identified for the investor buying on margin, along with the abnormal returns that can be expected from the contract and its equilibrium price. The technique is demonstrated in application to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures. It is shown that the risk of a stock index futures contract declines with the length of the investment horizon. However, the degree of abnormal performance and the deviation of the equilibrium price of the contract from the market price increases with time to maturity. The Journal of Portfolio Management†: French, Dan W. , Henderson, Glenn V (Winter 1985) published that the investment portfolio performance measures based on the capital asset pricing model are examined under ideal conditions that work around the problems that their critics have discovered. These problems include Miss specified independent variables, omitted variables, errors in variables, and unstable p arameters, all of which are basically beta problems. A database is constructed by simulating 60 portfolios or security return series, each containing 3 random variants having their own distribution. Regression analysis results show that winners cannot be distinguished from random performers, and that winners cannot even be labelled as such unless they are remarkably successful. If random noise is the only contaminating factor in performance evaluation, then the 4 currently popular performance measures rank in an internally consistent fashion and rank portfolio performance correctly â€Å"The Journal of Portfolio Management†: Peters (Summer 1985) published that Evidence is presented suggesting that early mispricing of stock index futures was due to market inefficiencies, but that the markets have become more efficient over time. This growing efficiency is the result of more experienced traders and the increasing availability of accurate valuation models. This evidence is derived from a test of market efficiency done using a cost-of-carry valuation model. The test is limited to the Standard & Poor's 500 and the New York Stock Exchange Composite indexes. The theoretical value for each future contract over the period June 1982-December 1983 is computed using data from CE/ICD's ANALYSTICS database. Results indicate that both index futures markets have become more efficient with time. If it is assumed that investors are rational and that expectations of the index value are not considered in valuation, it can further be assumed that dividend stream estimation is the major source of market inefficiency. Portfolio managers can now use index futures for hedging with greater confidence. 15 â€Å"The Journal of multinational financial management†: Javier Estrada and Ana Paula Serra (July 2005) published that the proper identification of the risk variables that explain the cross-section of returns in emerging markets has many and far-reaching implications for both companies and investors. We examine this risk–return relationship by focusing on three families of models, over 25 years of data, and over 1600 companies in 30 countries. We perform a statistical analysis that seeks to identify the variables that should be incorporated into the calculation of required returns on equity, and an economic analysis that seeks to determine the variables that produce the most profitable portfolio strategies. We find rather weak statistical results that prevent us from strongly recommending a given family to estimate required returns on equity. And we find somewhat stronger economic results that show that a variable belonging to our downside risk family, the global downside beta, is the one that has the largest impact on returns when portfolios are rebalanced every 5 years. â€Å"University of Mannheim – Department of Business Administration and Finance† : Alen Nosic (March 6, 2007), published that the determinants of investors' risk taking behavior. We find that investors' risk taking behaviour is affected by their subjective risk attitude and by the risk and return of an investment alternative. Our results also suggest hat consistent with previous findings in the literature objective or historical return and volatility of a stock are not as good predictors of risk taking behavior as subjective risk and return measures. Moreover, we illustrate that overconfidence or more precisely miscalibration has an impact on risk behavior as predicted by theoretical models. However, our results regarding the effect of var ious determinants on risk taking behavior heavily depends on the domain the respective determinant is elicited. We interpret this as an indication for extended domain specificity. In particular with the Markets of Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) coming into effect we believe practitioners could improve on their investment advising process by incorporating some of the determinants we argue to influence investment behavior. † European Journal of Operational Research†: Xiang Li, Zhongfeng Qin, Samarjit Kar (April 1, 2010) published Numerous empirical studies show that portfolio returns are asymmetric, and investors would prefer a portfolio return with larger degree of asymmetry when the mean value and variance are same. In order to measure the asymmetry of fuzzy portfolio return, a concept of skewness is defined as the third central moment in this paper, and its mathematical properties are studied. As an extension of the fuzzy mean-variance model, a mean-variance-skewness model is presented and the corresponding variations are also considered. In order to solve the proposed models, a genetic algorithm integrating fuzzy simulation is designed. Finally, several numerical examples are given to illustrate the modeling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Banking and Finance†: Cheol S Eun, Jinso Lee (April 2010) published that the risk-return characteristics of our sample of 17 developed stock markets of the world have converged significantly toward each other during our study period 1974-2007, and (ii) that this international convergence in risk-return characteristics is driven mainly by the declining ‘country effect', rather than the rising ‘industry effect', suggesti ng that the convergence is associated with international market integration. Specifically, we first ompute the risk-return distance among international stock markets based on the Euclidean distance and find that the distance thus computed has been decreasing significantly over time, implying a mean-variance convergence. In particular, the average risk-return distance has decreased by about 50% over our sample period. We also document that the risk-return characteristics of our sample of 14 emerging markets have been converging rapidly toward those of developed markets in recent years. This development notwithstanding, emerging markets still remain as a distinct asset class. Lastly, we show that the convergence in risk-return characteristics has exerted a negative impact on the efficiency of international investment during our sample period. â€Å"Journal of investment management†, Lisa R Goldberg, Michael Y Hayes (first quarter 2010) published that a practical and effective extension of portfolio risk management and construction best practices to account for extreme events. The central element of the extension is (expected) shortfall, which is the expected loss given that a value-at-risk limit is breached. Shortfall is the most basic measure of extreme risk, and unlike volatility and value at risk, it probes the tails of portfolio return and profit/loss distributions. Consequently, shortfall is (in principle) a guide to allocating reserve capital. Since it is a convex measure, shortfall can (again, in principle) be used as an optimization constraint either alone or in combination with volatility. In principle becomes in practice only if shortfall can be forecast accurately. A recent body of research uses factor models to generate robust, empirically accurate shortfall forecasts that can be analyzed with standard risk management tools such as betas, risk budgets and factor correlations. An important insight is that a long history of returns to risk factors can inform short-horizon shortfall forecasts in a meaningful way. 17 ________________________________________ ________________________________________ RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Sources of data: We selected the companies based on the market capitalisation and for this we referred money control. om from where we sorted out the top ten automobile companies in India based on the market capitalisation value given as of March 1, 2010. Then the opening and closing stock price of the top ten automobile companies for the previous five financial years (2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009, 2009-2010) was downloaded from NSE website(nseindia. com). The overall index return price was also downloaded from the same website for the same period. Top ten automobile industries selected based on market capitalisation are: Company nameMarket Capitalisation(Rs. Crore) Tata Motors43,388. 97 Maruti Suzuki 42,705. 24 Hero Honda38,218. 19 Tech Mahindra31,398. 74 Bajaj Auto 27,698. 93 Ashok Leyland 7,183. 83 HMT 6,307. 10 TVS Motor 1,800. 58 Eicher Motors 1,685. 52 Escorts 1,387. 46 Market capitalization (often market cap) is a measurement of the size of a business enterprise (corporation) equal to the share price times the number of shares outstanding of a public company. As owning stock represents ownership of the company, including all its equity, capitalization could represent the public opinion of a company's net worth and is a determining factor in stock valuation. Tools used: We used certain formulae to study on the risk and return of the companies and the portfolio management based on the Sharpe – Index model. The calculations were done in a spread sheet to make it easier. The formulae of the elements used in the spread sheet are as follows: Sum of Individual Stock returns – Ri and Market return – Rm. 18 Stock return – Y and Market return – X: = ((Today’s price – Yesterday’s price) / Yesterday’s price)*100. Mean of stock return – Y? , Mean of market return – X?. Y? = (sum of Y)/ total number of days X? = (sum of X)/ total number of days Standard deviation of Stock return – ? , Standard deviation of market return – ? x. Correlation = Covariance/(? y * ? x) Risk factor ? = Covariance *(? y / ? x) Return indicator ? = Y? – ? (X? ). Unsystematic risk – ? ei?. Cut off point Ci: n Ci = ? m? * ? ((Ri-Rf)? )/ ? ei? ) i =1 n 1 + ? m? * ? ( / ? ei? ) i=1 where , ? m = market variance. Z value = Zi/ ? _(i=1)^n-Zi where, Zi = ? /? ei? ( Ri-Rf)/? – Ci X value = Zi / Z. Tables and bar graphs are drawn for average values of important parameters like ? , ? x, ? y, X? , Y? , for each company for all five years. Outcomes are represented diagramaticaly) A table for all companies’ cut-off point, Z value, X value is also drawn. Population & Sample size: There was a total of about 16 automobile companies registered in NSE website out of which we selected top 10 companies based on the market capitalisation as mentioned before. Total population in NSE = 16. Sample size = 10. (Specific yrs. 2005-2010) 19 ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION Ashok Leyland Interpretation: Average Stock return Y? is largest during the year 2009(approximately 0. 6) and lowest during the year 2008 (approx. -0. 4). Risk factor ? is more during the year 2010 and low during the years 2006, â €™07, ’08. Highest deviation is seen in the year 2008 and least is seen in 2005. 20 Eicher Motors Interpretation: The company experiences the highest average stock return during the year 2009 (approx. 0. 5) and the lowest during the year 2010(approx. -0. 25). Risk factor ? is below 1 for all the years except 2010. But the average value for the five years stays below 1. Highest deviation is seen in the year 2008 and least deviation one is seen in 2005. 21 Escorts Interpretation: The company has a highest stock return in 2009 and less stock return in 2008. Average stock return is very low which is near to 0. 053. ?eta value is high in the year 2005 and low in the year 2009 and all the beta values are above 1. Deviation is seen high in 2008 and less in 2010. 22 Hero Honda Interpretation: Beta value is seen to be above 1 during the years 2007 & 2010. Average beta value of the company is seen to be below 1. Stock return is high during the year 2009 and negative during the years 2006 & 2007. Deviation is high in the year 2008. 23 HMT Interpretation: The company has a good stock return during the years 2005 and 2010 and negative during the year 2008. The deviation is very much high for the company here. Average deviation of 4. 5 is seen here. Average beta value is more than 1. 24 Maruti Suzuki Interpretation: Stock return is highest during the year 2009 and less during 2008. Beta value is less than 1 after 2007 and more than 1 before 2007. Deviation is large during 2008. 25 Tata motors Interpretation: Stock return is high in the year 2009 and has gone negative in the previous year. Beta value is less 1 from 2007 and >1 in 2005 & 2006. The deviation is more in 2009 and 2008. 26 TVS Motors Interpretation: Stock return high in 2009and very low in 2008. Beta value is less than 1 in all cases than in 2006. Deviation is supposed to be high in 2009. 27 Tech Mahindra Interpretation: The stock return is very high during the year 2006 and very less(negative) during the year 2008. Deviation is almost high for all the years. Average beta value is < 1. 28 Bajaj Auto Interpretation: The company has shown a good stock return of positive value during the years 2009 & 2010. Beta value is less than 1 for all the years. Deviation is high during the year 2008. 9 Table- Summary of Calculations Market return vs. Individual stock return Figure – 1 30 Comparison of Unsystematic risk and cut off points Figure – 2 Systematic Risk Figure – 3 31 Interpretation from Summary of Calculations: Table Figure – 1: HMT has the highest stock return and is greater the market return(about 170) Second comes the Maruti Suzuki followed by Hero honda. (about 150) TVS Motors has the lowest stock return of all the 10 companies and is less than the market return. (about 70) Figure – 2: Unsystematic risk is high for HMT (approx 19) and second Escorts. (approx 18) Hero Honda has the lowest unsystematic risk. (approx 5) Bajaj Auto has the highest cut off point whereas Ashok Leyland has the lowest cut off point. Figure – 3: Escorts has highest systematic risk (approx. 1. 36) HMT has the second higher risk value(approx. 1. 09) Bajaj Auto has the lowest risk value (approx. 0. 65) 32 ________________________________________ ________________________________________ FINDINGS Ashok Leyland: The ? value gives us a stock’s risk profile. Here we can take the average beta value and interpret and comment on the overall risk for the five years taken by the concern. Average beta value = 1 which means it is neither stable nor unstable. It is a neutral share and is expected to follow the market. From the table when we look at the ? value its average value is . 01233 which means that the minimum riskless return is 1. 23%. The company’s earnings from stock investment has reduced in the year 2010. We get a positive correlation value which implies that a 0. 5% in the market return will affect a company’s stock return by 0. 5% in the same direction. Eicher Motors: The company’s earnings from stock investment has reduced in the year 2010 from 2009. Here ? he company expects less volatility and less risk and therefore less returns. These are called defensive shares and will generally experience smaller than average gains in a rising market, will generally experience smaller than average falls in a declining market. From the table the average ? value 0. i6691. The minimum risk free return is 16. 69%. Mahindra is having high risk free rate so it is safe to hold this stock. Correlation value = 0. 44% 0. 44% of change in market return affects the stock return by 0. 44% in the same direction. Bajaj Auto: The return on stock investments is good during 2009 & 2010 when compared to the year 2008. Since beta value < 1. The company expects a stability, less risk and less returns. These are called defensive shares and will generally experience smaller than average gains in a rising market, will generally experience smaller than average falls in a declining market. Alpha From the table the average ? value 0. 24715. The minimum risk free return is 24. 715%. Bajaj is having the highest risk free retun in all the ten companies so it is very safe to invest. Correlation value = 0. 46% 0. 46% change in Rm = 0. 46% change in Ri in the same direction. 35 Summary of calculation: HMT is having high stock return because they are using stock investments efficiently in the business The low cut-off point is good which implies less payback. Ashok Leyland has minimum payback whereas Bajaj has maximum payback. Escorts involves in high risky projects expecting more returns rather Bajaj is not involving in risky projects. SUGGESTIONS Hero Honda is having low risk and high return. So it is good for the investors to invest in this company. (for investors) HMT is taking high risk and provides decent returns. So next to Herohonda, HMT is a good company to invest. (for investors) Bajaj is having a low return at a medium risk so the company have to indulge in risky projects to get good returns in the future. (for company) HMT and Escorts have high unsystematic risk, so they can go for product diversification to reduce the unsystematic risk. (for company) (Product diversification helps the companies to reduce the unsystematic risk because even if they lose in one of the products they can make up their revenues by some other product) Cut off point is the point at which the required rate of return is worth the expense. If it is high then that company is going to take a long time to repay its initial investment. In our case Ashok Leyland will be able to recover the money invested in the project as soon as possible than others. Ashok Leyland might serve as the best company to invest to get their investment back whatever the return may be. Based on the stock return, risk and the cut off point, Herohonda is a good company to invest because they have an optimum return at an optimum risk level. TVS motors has a high cut off point, less stock return at a high risk. They can reduce their risk level, because it might involve large sum of investment. 36 ________________________________________ ________________________________________ CONCLUSION According to our findings we suggest that Hero Honda is the best Automobile company in India to invest and the investment can range up to 42% as per our analysis. Although India has been much discussed in recent years, and has been the recipient of major foreign investment in its automotive industry, it has in many ways not received the attention of the world’s other major developing country, China – but this is about to change. With the world’s second largest and fastest-growing population, there is no denying India’s potential in both economic and population terms and the effect it will have on the auto industry in the years to come. The country is already off to a good start, with a well-developed components industry and a production level of one million four-wheeled vehicles a year, plus a further five million two- and three-wheelers. India also has substantial strength in mass production techniques and is particularly well served in the fields of research and development and software design. Therefore, as always, the question is when will expansion occur and to what level? The implications, market drivers and scope of a future massive Indian vehicle market are covered in the India Strategic Market Profile, a brand-new forecast of Indian automotive and related activity to 2020. 37 BIBLIOGRAPHY Robert A. Strong, year, Portfolio Management, 82-85,123-131. Jeff Madura, 2009, Finance Markets and Institutions, 243-283. Dr. G. Ramesh Babu, 2007, Portfolio Management Including Security Analysis, 577-647. www. nseindia. com www. moneycontrol. com www. springerlink. com www. proquest. com www. sciencedirect. com www. jstor. org www. informaworld. com 38

Angels Demons Chapter 66-69

66 Chinita Macri was mad. She sat in the passenger's seat of the BBC van as it idled at a corner on Via Tomacelli. Gunther Glick was checking his map of Rome, apparently lost. As she had feared, his mystery caller had phoned back, this time with information. â€Å"Piazza del Popolo,† Glick insisted. â€Å"That's what we're looking for. There's a church there. And inside is proof.† â€Å"Proof.† Chinita stopped polishing the lens in her hand and turned to him. â€Å"Proof that a cardinal has been murdered?† â€Å"That's what he said.† â€Å"You believe everything you hear?† Chinita wished, as she often did, that she was the one in charge. Videographers, however, were at the whim of the crazy reporters for whom they shot footage. If Gunther Glick wanted to follow a feeble phone tip, Macri was his dog on a leash. She looked at him, sitting there in the driver's seat, his jaw set intently. The man's parents, she decided, must have been frustrated comedians to have given him a name like Gunther Glick. No wonder the guy felt like he had something to prove. Nonetheless, despite his unfortunate appellative and annoying eagerness to make a mark, Glick was sweet†¦ charming in a pasty, Briddish, unstrung sort of way. Like Hugh Grant on lithium. â€Å"Shouldn't we be back at St. Peter's?† Macri said as patiently as possible. â€Å"We can check this mystery church out later. Conclave started an hour ago. What if the cardinals come to a decision while we're gone?† Glick did not seem to hear. â€Å"I think we go to the right, here.† He tilted the map and studied it again. â€Å"Yes, if I take a right†¦ and then an immediate left.† He began to pull out onto the narrow street before them. â€Å"Look out!† Macri yelled. She was a video technician, and her eyes were sharp. Fortunately, Glick was pretty fast too. He slammed on the brakes and avoided entering the intersection just as a line of four Alpha Romeos appeared out of nowhere and tore by in a blur. Once past, the cars skidded, decelerating, and cut sharply left one block ahead, taking the exact route Glick had intended to take. â€Å"Maniacs!† Macri shouted. Glick looked shaken. â€Å"Did you see that?† â€Å"Yeah, I saw that! They almost killed us!† â€Å"No, I mean the cars,† Glick said, his voice suddenly excited. â€Å"They were all the same.† â€Å"So they were maniacs with no imagination.† â€Å"The cars were also full.† â€Å"So what?† â€Å"Four identical cars, all with four passengers?† â€Å"You ever heard of carpooling?† â€Å"In Italy?† Glick checked the intersection. â€Å"They haven't even heard of unleaded gas.† He hit the accelerator and peeled out after the cars. Macri was thrown back in her seat. â€Å"What the hell are you doing?† Glick accelerated down the street and hung a left after the Alpha Romeos. â€Å"Something tells me you and I are not the only ones going to church right now.† 67 The descent was slow. Langdon dropped rung by rung down the creaking ladder†¦ deeper and deeper beneath the floor of the Chigi Chapel. Into the Demon's hole, he thought. He was facing the side wall, his back to the chamber, and he wondered how many more dark, cramped spaces one day could provide. The ladder groaned with every step, and the pungent smell of rotting flesh and dampness was almost asphyxiating. Langdon wondered where the hell Olivetti was. Vittoria's outline was still visible above, holding the blowtorch inside the hole, lighting Langdon's way. As he lowered himself deeper into the darkness, the bluish glow from above got fainter. The only thing that got stronger was the stench. Twelve rungs down, it happened. Langdon's foot hit a spot that was slippery with decay, and he faltered. Lunging forward, he caught the ladder with his forearms to avoid plummeting to the bottom. Cursing the bruises now throbbing on his arms, he dragged his body back onto the ladder and began his descent again. Three rungs deeper, he almost fell again, but this time it was not a rung that caused the mishap. It was a bolt of fear. He had descended past a hollowed niche in the wall before him and suddenly found himself face to face with a collection of skulls. As he caught his breath and looked around him, he realized the wall at this level was honeycombed with shelflike openings – burial niches – all filled with skeletons. In the phosphorescent light, it made for an eerie collage of empty sockets and decaying rib cages flickering around him. Skeletons by firelight, he grimaced wryly, realizing he had quite coincidentally endured a similar evening just last month. An evening of bones and flames. The New York Museum of Archeology's candlelight benefit dinner – salmon flambe in the shadow of a brontosaurus skeleton. He had attended at the invitation of Rebecca Strauss – one-time fashion model now art critic from the Times, a whirlwind of black velvet, cigarettes, and not-so-subtly enhanced breasts. She'd called him twice since. Langdon had not returned her calls. Most ungentlemanly, he chided, wondering how long Rebecca Strauss would last in a stink-pit like this. Langdon was relieved to feel the final rung give way to the spongy earth at the bottom. The ground beneath his shoes felt damp. Assuring himself the walls were not going to close in on him, he turned into the crypt. It was circular, about twenty feet across. Breathing through his sleeve again, Langdon turned his eyes to the body. In the gloom, the image was hazy. A white, fleshy outline. Facing the other direction. Motionless. Silent. Advancing through the murkiness of the crypt, Langdon tried to make sense of what he was looking at. The man had his back to Langdon, and Langdon could not see his face, but he did indeed seem to be standing. â€Å"Hello?† Langdon choked through his sleeve. Nothing. As he drew nearer, he realized the man was very short. Too short†¦ â€Å"What's happening?† Vittoria called from above, shifting the light. Langdon did not answer. He was now close enough to see it all. With a tremor of repulsion, he understood. The chamber seemed to contract around him. Emerging like a demon from the earthen floor was an old man†¦ or at least half of him. He was buried up to his waist in the earth. Standing upright with half of him below ground. Stripped naked. His hands tied behind his back with a red cardinal's sash. He was propped limply upward, spine arched backward like some sort of hideous punching bag. The man's head lay backward, eyes toward the heavens as if pleading for help from God himself. â€Å"Is he dead?† Vittoria called. Langdon moved toward the body. I hope so, for his sake. As he drew to within a few feet, he looked down at the upturned eyes. They bulged outward, blue and bloodshot. Langdon leaned down to listen for breath but immediately recoiled. â€Å"For Christ's sake!† â€Å"What!† Langdon almost gagged. â€Å"He's dead all right. I just saw the cause of death.† The sight was gruesome. The man's mouth had been jammed open and packed solid with dirt. â€Å"Somebody stuffed a fistful of dirt down his throat. He suffocated.† â€Å"Dirt?† Vittoria said. â€Å"As in†¦ earth?† Langdon did a double take. Earth. He had almost forgotten. The brands. Earth, Air, Fire, Water. The killer had threatened to brand each victim with one of the ancient elements of science. The first element was Earth. From Santi's earthly tomb. Dizzy from the fumes, Langdon circled to the front of the body. As he did, the symbologist within him loudly reasserted the artistic challenge of creating the mythical ambigram. Earth? How? And yet, an instant later, it was before him. Centuries of Illuminati legend whirled in his mind. The marking on the cardinal's chest was charred and oozing. The flesh was seared black. La lingua pura†¦ Langdon stared at the brand as the room began to spin. Angels & Demons â€Å"Earth,† he whispered, tilting his head to see the symbol upside down. â€Å"Earth.† Then, in a wave of horror, he had one final cognition. There are three more. 68 Despite the soft glow of candlelight in the Sistine Chapel, Cardinal Mortati was on edge. Conclave had officially begun. And it had begun in a most inauspicious fashion. Half an hour ago, at the appointed hour, Camerlegno Carlo Ventresca had entered the chapel. He walked to the front altar and gave opening prayer. Then, he unfolded his hands and spoke to them in a tone as direct as anything Mortati had ever heard from the altar of the Sistine. â€Å"You are well aware,† the camerlegno said, â€Å"that our four preferiti are not present in conclave at this moment. I ask, in the name of his late Holiness, that you proceed as you must†¦ with faith and purpose. May you have only God before your eyes.† Then he turned to go. â€Å"But,† one cardinal blurted out, â€Å"where are they?† The camerlegno paused. â€Å"That I cannot honestly say.† â€Å"When will they return?† â€Å"That I cannot honestly say.† â€Å"Are they okay?† â€Å"That I cannot honestly say.† â€Å"Will they return?† There was a long pause. â€Å"Have faith,† the camerlegno said. Then he walked out of the room. The doors to the Sistine Chapel had been sealed, as was the custom, with two heavy chains on the outside. Four Swiss Guards stood watch in the hallway beyond. Mortati knew the only way the doors could be opened now, prior to electing a Pope, was if someone inside fell deathly ill, or if the preferiti arrived. Mortati prayed it would be the latter, although from the knot in his stomach he was not so sure. Proceed as we must, Mortati decided, taking his lead from the resolve in the camerlegno's voice. So he had called for a vote. What else could he do? It had taken thirty minutes to complete the preparatory rituals leading up to this first vote. Mortati had waited patiently at the main altar as each cardinal, in order of seniority, had approached and performed the specific balloting procedure. Now, at last, the final cardinal had arrived at the altar and was kneeling before him. â€Å"I call as my witness,† the cardinal declared, exactly as those before him, â€Å"Christ the Lord, who will be my judge that my vote is given to the one who before God I think should be elected.† The cardinal stood up. He held his ballot high over his head for everyone to see. Then he lowered the ballot to the altar, where a plate sat atop a large chalice. He placed the ballot on the plate. Next he picked up the plate and used it to drop the ballot into the chalice. Use of the plate was to ensure no one secretly dropped multiple ballots. After he had submitted his ballot, he replaced the plate over the chalice, bowed to the cross, and returned to his seat. The final ballot had been cast. Now it was time for Mortati to go to work. Leaving the plate on top of the chalice, Mortati shook the ballots to mix them. Then he removed the plate and extracted a ballot at random. He unfolded it. The ballot was exactly two inches wide. He read aloud for everyone to hear. â€Å"Eligo in summum pontificem†¦Ã¢â‚¬  he declared, reading the text that was embossed at the top of every ballot. I elect as Supreme Pontiff†¦ Then he announced the nominee's name that had been written beneath it. After he read the name, he raised a threaded needle and pierced the ballot through the word Eligo, carefully sliding the ballot onto the thread. Then he made note of the vote in a logbook. Next, he repeated the entire procedure. He chose a ballot from the chalice, read it aloud, threaded it onto the line, and made note in his log. Almost immediately, Mortati sensed this first vote would be failed. No consensus. After only seven ballots, already seven different cardinals had been named. As was normal, the handwriting on each ballot was disguised by block printing or flamboyant script. The concealment was ironic in this case because the cardinals were obviously submitting votes for themselves. This apparent conceit, Mortati knew, had nothing to do with self-centered ambition. It was a holding pattern. A defensive maneuver. A stall tactic to ensure no cardinal received enough votes to win†¦ and another vote would be forced. The cardinals were waiting for their preferiti†¦ When the last of the ballots had been tallied, Mortati declared the vote â€Å"failed.† He took the thread carrying all the ballots and tied the ends together to create a ring. Then he lay the ring of ballots on a silver tray. He added the proper chemicals and carried the tray to a small chimney behind him. Here he lit the ballots. As the ballots burned, the chemicals he'd added created black smoke. The smoke flowed up a pipe to a hole in the roof where it rose above the chapel for all to see. Cardinal Mortati had just sent his first communication to the outside world. One balloting. No Pope. 69 Nearly asphyxiated by fumes, Langdon struggled up the ladder toward the light at the top of the pit. Above him he heard voices, but nothing was making sense. His head was spinning with images of the branded cardinal. Earth†¦ Earth†¦ As he pushed upward, his vision narrowed and he feared consciousness would slip away. Two rungs from the top, his balance faltered. He lunged upward trying to find the lip, but it was too far. He lost his grip on the ladder and almost tumbled backward into the dark. There was a sharp pain under his arms, and suddenly Langdon was airborne, legs swinging wildly out over the chasm. The strong hands of two Swiss Guards hooked him under the armpits and dragged him skyward. A moment later Langdon's head emerged from the Demon's hole, choking and gasping for air. The guards dragged him over the lip of the opening, across the floor, and lay him down, back against the cold marble floor. For a moment, Langdon was unsure where he was. Overhead he saw stars†¦ orbiting planets. Hazy figures raced past him. People were shouting. He tried to sit up. He was lying at the base of a stone pyramid. The familiar bite of an angry tongue echoed inside the chapel, and then Langdon knew. Olivetti was screaming at Vittoria. â€Å"Why the hell didn't you figure that out in the first place!† Vittoria was trying to explain the situation. Olivetti cut her off midsentence and turned to bark orders to his men. â€Å"Get that body out of there! Search the rest of the building!† Langdon tried to sit up. The Chigi Chapel was packed with Swiss Guards. The plastic curtain over the chapel opening had been torn off the entryway, and fresh air filled Langdon's lungs. As his senses slowly returned, Langdon saw Vittoria coming toward him. She knelt down, her face like an angel. â€Å"You okay?† Vittoria took his arm and felt his pulse. Her hands were tender on his skin. â€Å"Thanks.† Langdon sat up fully. â€Å"Olivetti's mad.† Vittoria nodded. â€Å"He has a right to be. We blew it.† â€Å"You mean I blew it.† â€Å"So redeem yourself. Get him next time.† Next time? Langdon thought it was a cruel comment. There is no next time! We missed our shot! Vittoria checked Langdon's watch. â€Å"Mickey says we've got forty minutes. Get your head together and help me find the next marker.† â€Å"I told you, Vittoria, the sculptures are gone. The Path of Illumination is – † Langdon halted. Vittoria smiled softly. Suddenly Langdon was staggering to his feet. He turned dizzying circles, staring at the artwork around him. Pyramids, stars, planets, ellipses. Suddenly everything came back. This is the first altar of science! Not the Pantheon! It dawned on him now how perfectly Illuminati the chapel was, far more subtle and selective than the world famous Pantheon. The Chigi was an out of the way alcove, a literal hole-in-the-wall, a tribute to a great patron of science, decorated with earthly symbology. Perfect. Langdon steadied himself against the wall and gazed up at the enormous pyramid sculptures. Vittoria was dead right. If this chapel was the first altar of science, it might still contain the Illuminati sculpture that served as the first marker. Langdon felt an electrifying rush of hope to realize there was still a chance. If the marker were indeed here, and they could follow it to the next altar of science, they might have another chance to catch the killer. Vittoria moved closer. â€Å"I found out who the unknown Illuminati sculptor was.† Langdon's head whipped around. â€Å"You what?† â€Å"Now we just need to figure out which sculpture in here is the – â€Å" â€Å"Wait a minute! You know who the Illuminati sculptor was?† He had spent years trying to find that information. Vittoria smiled. â€Å"It was Bernini.† She paused. â€Å"The Bernini.† Langdon immediately knew she was mistaken. Bernini was an impossibility. Gianlorenzo Bernini was the second most famous sculptor of all time, his fame eclipsed only by Michelangelo himself. During the 1600s Bernini created more sculptures than any other artist. Unfortunately, the man they were looking for was supposedly an unknown, a nobody. Vittoria frowned. â€Å"You don't look excited.† â€Å"Bernini is impossible.† â€Å"Why? Bernini was a contemporary of Galileo. He was a brilliant sculptor.† â€Å"He was a very famous man and a Catholic.† â€Å"Yes,† Vittoria said. â€Å"Exactly like Galileo.† â€Å"No,† Langdon argued. â€Å"Nothing like Galileo. Galileo was a thorn in the Vatican's side. Bernini was the Vatican's wonder boy. The church loved Bernini. He was elected the Vatican's overall artistic authority. He practically lived inside Vatican City his entire life!† â€Å"A perfect cover. Illuminati infiltration.† Langdon felt flustered. â€Å"Vittoria, the Illuminati members referred to their secret artist as il maestro ignoto – the unknown master.† â€Å"Yes, unknown to them. Think of the secrecy of the Masons – only the upper-echelon members knew the whole truth. Galileo could have kept Bernini's true identity secret from most members†¦ for Bernini's own safety. That way, the Vatican would never find out.† Langdon was unconvinced but had to admit Vittoria's logic made strange sense. The Illuminati were famous for keeping secret information compartmentalized, only revealing the truth to upper-level members. It was the cornerstone of their ability to stay secret†¦ very few knew the whole story. â€Å"And Bernini's affiliation with the Illuminati,† Vittoria added with a smile, â€Å"explains why he designed those two pyramids.† Langdon turned to the huge sculpted pyramids and shook his head. â€Å"Bernini was a religious sculptor. There's no way he carved those pyramids.† Vittoria shrugged. â€Å"Tell that to the sign behind you.† Langdon turned to the plaque: ART OF THE CHIGI CHAPEL While the architecture is Raphael's, all interior adornments are those of Gianlorenzo Bernini. Langdon read the plaque twice, and still he was not convinced. Gianlorenzo Bernini was celebrated for his intricate, holy sculptures of the Virgin Mary, angels, prophets, Popes. What was he doing carving pyramids? Langdon looked up at the towering monuments and felt totally disoriented. Two pyramids, each with a shining, elliptical medallion. They were about as un-Christian as sculpture could get. The pyramids, the stars above, the signs of the Zodiac. All interior adornments are those of Gianlorenzo Bernini. If that were true, Langdon realized, it meant Vittoria had to be right. By default, Bernini was the Illuminati's unknown master; nobody else had contributed artwork to this chapel! The implications came almost too fast for Langdon to process. Bernini was an Illuminatus. Bernini designed the Illuminati ambigrams. Bernini laid out the path of Illumination. Langdon could barely speak. Could it be that here in this tiny Chigi Chapel, the world-renowned Bernini had placed a sculpture that pointed across Rome toward the next altar of science? â€Å"Bernini,† he said. â€Å"I never would have guessed.† â€Å"Who other than a famous Vatican artist would have had the clout to put his artwork in specific Catholic chapels around Rome and create the Path of Illumination? Certainly not an unknown.† Langdon considered it. He looked at the pyramids, wondering if one of them could somehow be the marker. Maybe both of them? â€Å"The pyramids face opposite directions,† Langdon said, not sure what to make of them. â€Å"They are also identical, so I don't know which†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"I don't think the pyramids are what we're looking for.† â€Å"But they're the only sculptures here.† Vittoria cut him off by pointing toward Olivetti and some of his guards who were gathered near the demon's hole. Langdon followed the line of her hand to the far wall. At first he saw nothing. Then someone moved and he caught a glimpse. White marble. An arm. A torso. And then a sculpted face. Partially hidden in its niche. Two life-size human figures intertwined. Langdon's pulse accelerated. He had been so taken with the pyramids and demon's hole, he had not even seen this sculpture. He moved across the room, through the crowd. As he drew near, Langdon recognized the work was pure Bernini – the intensity of the artistic composition, the intricate faces and flowing clothing, all from the purest white marble Vatican money could buy. It was not until he was almost directly in front of it that Langdon recognized the sculpture itself. He stared up at the two faces and gasped. â€Å"Who are they?† Vittoria urged, arriving behind him. Langdon stood astonished. â€Å"Habakkuk and the Angel,† he said, his voice almost inaudible. The piece was a fairly well-known Bernini work that was included in some art history texts. Langdon had forgotten it was here. â€Å"Habakkuk?† â€Å"Yes. The prophet who predicted the annihilation of the earth.† Vittoria looked uneasy. â€Å"You think this is the marker?† Langdon nodded in amazement. Never in his life had he been so sure of anything. This was the first Illuminati marker. No doubt. Although Langdon had fully expected the sculpture to somehow â€Å"point† to the next altar of science, he did not expect it to be literal. Both the angel and Habakkuk had their arms outstretched and were pointing into the distance. Langdon found himself suddenly smiling. â€Å"Not too subtle, is it?† Vittoria looked excited but confused. â€Å"I see them pointing, but they are contradicting each other. The angel is pointing one way, and the prophet the other.† Langdon chuckled. It was true. Although both figures were pointing into the distance, they were pointing in totally opposite directions. Langdon, however, had already solved that problem. With a burst of energy he headed for the door. â€Å"Where are you going?† Vittoria called. â€Å"Outside the building!† Langdon's legs felt light again as he ran toward the door. â€Å"I need to see what direction that sculpture is pointing!† â€Å"Wait! How do you know which finger to follow?† â€Å"The poem,† he called over his shoulder. â€Å"The last line!† † ‘Let angels guide you on your lofty quest?' † She gazed upward at the outstretched finger of the angel. Her eyes misted unexpectedly. â€Å"Well I'll be damned!†